Summary

Russia’s aggressive actions are driven by a defensive realist approach in response to NATO’s expansion and historical vulnerabilities, aiming to preserve its sovereignty and national interests rather than pursuing imperial ambitions.

Russia’s Geopolitical Strategy

Russia operates as a defensive realist power, balancing against dominant US influence by forming alliances to diminish American power, as explained in Sumantra Maitra’s book “The Sources of Russian Aggression”.

Russia’s behavior over the past 30 years can be understood through structural realism and balancing theory, where powerful countries like Russia counteract the dominance of strong world powers like the US and NATO.

Key Military Actions

The 2008 Georgia conflict was Russia’s first significant military operation against a neighboring country in recent history, with Georgia initiating the war and Russia ultimately controlling South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Russia’s 2014 invasion of eastern Ukraine was not an imperialist conquest but an effort to secure interests, prevent Ukraine’s NATO membership, and preserve access to the strategically important Sea of Azov and Donbas region.

Strategic Importance of Territories

Crimea holds critical geostrategic value for Russia, allowing power projection into the Black Sea, and its loss would severely impact Russia’s security and defensive capabilities.

Ukraine’s central location and economic importance to Russia explain the different response to NATO involvement compared to Finland or the Baltics.

NATO Expansion and Russian Security

NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe, despite initial promises of non-provocation, repeatedly threatened Russia’s security and led to increased defensiveness.

In the 1990s, a weakened post-Soviet Russia allowed NATO expansion, but under Putin in the 2000s, Russia regained strength and began actively countering perceived threats near its borders.