Knife: “Variable this is knife, standby to copy, over”
Variable: “Knife this is Variable. Your signal is 5 by 5, over”.
Knife: “The chicken is in the pot, over.”
Variable: “Cook it.”
Know the quote above? Love the book or movie? If so, read on!
In the last three months, I feel like my high school readings of Tom Clancy novels are being conjured into reality – and I love it. “The War on Drugs” finally has teeth and is actually yielding real results. Traffickers are getting deleted via overhead platforms and additional GWOT technologies are being used against them in hereto unforeseen ways.
Unless you’ve had your head in the sand you know that in recent months, the United States has carried out a series of lethal strikes against narco-terrorists in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific. Department of War (DoW) officials accurately describe these missions as part of a campaign to crack down on fentanyl and disrupt the criminal networks behind it. These actions are a credible deterrent message that will slow down (and hopefully eventually stop) the flood of poison to the citizens of the United States. Fighting drug cartels is one of the few things Democrats and Republicans still broadly agree on. They should – we’ve been fighting the “war on drugs” for decades without real lethal commitment. Now we have it. The mainstream media can wring their hands about “secondary strikes” and “when Hegseth knew what”, but at the end of the day bad dudes are dead, drugs are destroyed and American lives will be saved. ‘Nuff said.
However, given my experience, I think there is something bigger being signaled here with these actions, so grant me some print to make my argument.
Operations in the Caribbean against designated narco-terrorists are functioning as a live rehearsal for a very different conflict — one the United States hopes it never has to fight but increasingly anticipates — a war with China.
This isn’t the first time America has used real-world crises as laboratories. For example – the war in Ukraine has already become a proving ground for new military technologies, intelligence systems, and legal frameworks. The Caribbean now appears to be playing a similar role, but on the maritime front.
Together, these theaters offer a glimpse of how the United States is preparing for the strategic competition that will define the next decade.
“The Ukrainian Live Lab”
Since Russia’s invasion in 2022, Ukraine has become the world’s most closely observed battlefield. The conflict is saturated with drones, sensors, satellites, and artificial intelligence tools that help sift through an overwhelming amount of data. Western militaries and private companies have used Ukraine to refine everything from drone swarms to real-time battlefield mapping. Defense tech is paying attention – huge investments are being made.
Ukrainian officials openly acknowledge that foreign defense firms test new systems there with Kyiv’s consent. Western governments have grown comfortable sharing intelligence that, only a few years ago, would have been considered too sensitive for release. New norms have emerged around using commercially available satellite imagery for military targeting and employing automated systems to support commanders’ decisions.
These shifts matter for one reason: They are unlikely to stay limited to Ukraine. They represent a broader transformation in how advanced militaries operate.
“The Caribbean Crucible”
The connection to the Caribbean might seem far-fetched. But the pattern is there. In the waters stretching from Colombia to the Yucatán, American forces are tracking and striking small, fast-moving boats that slip among civilian vessels. These targets appear and disappear quickly. Determining who is a trafficker and who is not requires extensive surveillance and rapid judgment calls.
To do this, the United States relies on an enormous intelligence network — drones, aircraft, satellites, maritime sensors and data from international partners. Multiple agencies, including the Navy and Coast Guard, must coordinate at high speed.
This is not just counterdrug work. It is practice.
The complexity of these operations resembles the maritime environment the United States would face in the Western Pacific. And it closely mirrors the tactics China uses today to advance its territorial claims.
China’s “Cajun Navy”
Beijing has quietly built a massive paramilitary force at sea — not through warships, but through thousands of “civilian” fishing boats. Many are subsidized by the Chinese government and coordinated through official channels. Some are equipped with reinforced hulls, military communications, and dedicated support from the Chinese Coast Guard.
These vessels form what analysts call China’s maritime militia, a force that operates in disputed waters without wearing uniforms or raising flags. They swarm reefs and islands, harass foreign ships, and create a constant, low-level pressure that is difficult to respond to without risking escalation.
In a crisis over Taiwan or in the South China Sea, these same vessels would be used to obscure China’s intentions, complicate American surveillance, and create doubt about which boats are civilians and which are acting as military auxiliaries.
The United States is now confronting a similar challenge — in a safer location — as it hunts drug boats that are small, fast, lightly crewed, and deeply embedded in civilian shipping routes.
Smart Deterrence Through Technology
To deter China, the United States must demonstrate capability, not just conviction — and the Caribbean offers a place to do that without risking a great-power clash. When we track narco-subs, intercept and destroy fast boats and fuse intelligence from drones, satellites, and underwater sensors, we’re practicing the very skills we would need against China’s maritime militia and its growing fleet of unmanned submersible drones. These operations show that American systems can find, classify and respond to elusive threats in real time. But that deterrent power only holds if we invest now in the smart technologies — autonomous surveillance, AI-driven analysis, rapid decision tools — that make these demonstrations possible. Our deadly and committed resolve in the Caribbean isn’t a distraction; it’s a signal to China and other near-peer adversaries.
And the stronger and more violently that signal resonates, the more likely it is to keep the peace in the future.
Chris Cruden is a defense-industrial strategist driving technology modernization, information advantage, and wartime industrial-base transformation across the Department of War and private sector.