As the Trump administration angles for peace between Ukraine and Russia, the real driving force that will bring calm to the region — while benefiting the United States — is a critical mineral deal with America.
To understand why, we must first recognize why critical minerals are so essential.
Ukraine contains only 0.4% of the world’s land mass but has an estimated 5% of the world’s critical mineral reserves, including uranium, aluminum, copper, nickel, lithium, rare earth metals, graphite, and more. These minerals are vital for advanced industry and technology, including metallurgy, batteries, fuel cells, lubricants, computer chips, nuclear energy … the list is nearly endless. Even though these minerals are linchpins of the modern economy, out of the 50 minerals deemed “critical,” the U.S. fully relies on imports for 12 of them. We have to import over 50% of another 28 of these building blocks.
Whether it’s Canada, Greenland, or Ukraine, President Trump wants to import critical minerals wherever possible to sustain and strengthen our economic and technological dominance.
What’s less clear is why the proposed U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal is the cornerstone of Trump’s peace plan.
Critics have mislabeled President Trump’s bid for critical minerals as an attempt to steal one of Ukraine’s best assets while the nation is desperate — without providing any security or military guarantees. But the opposite is the case. President Trump is offering Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a lifeline. If America has an agreement to access Ukraine’s critical minerals, Zelenskyy will have with it all the security guarantees his nation needs.
Here’s how: The deal gives the U.S. rights to develop Ukrainian minerals. That development can only take place with a sizeable U.S. investment. And America will only benefit from this investment if Ukraine is at peace, stable, and reasonably independent of an assertive Russia.
To use a financial metaphor, it’s as if the U.S. is taking an equity stake in Ukraine’s future. Our investment will only rise if Ukraine also rises, meaning we are directly interested in Ukraine’s success.
Even more consequentially, America can’t afford to let this investment fail because our biggest adversary — the Chinese Communist Party, not Russia — dominates the global critical mineral market.
China has a greater monopoly over critical minerals than the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has over oil. Where OPEC produces around 40% of the world’s crude oil, China produces 60% of rare earth elements, refines 90% of rare earth elements, and refines 60% to 70% of particularly vital minerals like lithium and cobalt.
Minerals like lithium and cobalt are crucial to making clean energy technologies like electric vehicles and wind turbines. It’s no wonder that China has cornered the growing clean energy technology market. In 2023, China manufactured more solar panels than the rest of the world combined and also leads in electric vehicle and wind turbine production. This massive lead is no small matter, especially as the renewable energy market was an estimated $1.21 trillion in 2023, with an expected annual growth rate of over 17%.
We must have access to critical minerals to retain America’s economic edge, overtake China in the vastly profitable renewable technology market, and secure dominance in every other technology of the future.
And that brings us back to the war in Eastern Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin knows that, until this point, America has backed Ukraine both because our leaders believed it was a moral duty and because of the fear that Russia would continue its march through Ukraine and threaten our NATO allies in Europe. The United States has not yet had an immediate financial and technological interest in Ukraine directly impacting our geostrategic competition with China.
That would all change with a critical mineral deal. At a minimum, a U.S.-Ukraine pact would cause Putin to think twice about advancing any further, convincing him it’s not worth provoking America when we have a vital national interest at stake. In the best-case scenario, America’s long-term investment in the region will lead Putin to accept President Trump’s offer of partnership over choosing conflict. After all, with the United States eager to secure critical minerals in our competition with China, the cheapest and least bloody way Putin can keep his influence in Eastern Europe would be to work with us, not against us.
Either way, the results of a U.S. and Ukraine deal would be peace for Eastern Europe and access to the critical minerals we need. That sounds like a good partnership to me.
Drew Bond is the Co-Founder, President & CEO of C3 Solutions.